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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 7 at the 11

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(5:32) 6-C.Sturgis 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +2.03 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +6.02 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 11, worth +0.24 EP
KICK +2.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.40 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.47 EP
PUNT +0.24 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model