Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 5 at the 73

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 3

(3:21) 4-J.Berry punts 55 yards to PHI 18, Center-60-G.Warren, downed by PIT-88-D.Heyward-Bey.

The Three Options

GO -1.85 EP

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.15 EP
54% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 73, worth -4.45 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model