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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 14 at the 27

Washington Commanders 6 – New York Giants 14

What Actually Happened

(8:39) 3-D.Hopkins 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +0.06 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.87 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 27, worth -1.67 EP
KICK +0.74 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.42 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 37, worth -2.28 EP
PUNT -0.67 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model