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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 5 at the 67

Washington Commanders 16 – New York Giants 21

What Actually Happened

(13:22) 5-T.Way punts 56 yards to NYG 11, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 17-D.Harris pushed ob at NYG 27 for 16 yards (51-W.Compton). PENALTY on NYG-28-P.Perkins, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NYG 25. Officially, a return for 14 yards.

The Three Options

GO -1.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.04 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 67, worth -3.92 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.35 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 25, worth -1.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model