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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 7 at the 7

Washington Commanders 23 – New York Giants 24

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 3-D.Hopkins 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +1.83 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.66 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 7, worth -0.16 EP
KICK +1.65 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 21, worth -1.00 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model