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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 2 at the 31

Washington Commanders 0 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(9:40) 3-D.Hopkins 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +1.53 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.92 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 31, worth -1.76 EP
KICK +0.62 EP
What Happened
  • 74% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 41, worth -2.42 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.92 EP