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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 4 at the 15

Washington Commanders 3 – New York Giants 14

What Actually Happened

(:30) 3-D.Hopkins 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +1.77 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +4.93 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 15, worth -0.72 EP
KICK +1.53 EP
What Happened
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 25, worth -1.31 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model