4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 3 at the 57

Dallas Cowboys 0 – San Francisco 49ers 14

What Actually Happened

(10:47) 6-C.Jones punts 51 yards to SF 6, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.52 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 57, worth -3.26 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -1.06 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 17, worth -1.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP