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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 14 at the 18

San Francisco 49ers 14 – Dallas Cowboys 14

What Actually Happened

(12:23) 4-P.Dawson 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +0.86 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.97 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 18, worth -0.61 EP
KICK +1.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 28, worth -1.26 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model