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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 1 at the 50

Dallas Cowboys 14 – San Francisco 49ers 17

What Actually Happened

(8:55) 6-C.Jones punts 50 yards to end zone, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.93 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.74 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 50, worth -2.86 EP
KICK -1.79 EP
  • 23% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 77% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.86 EP
PUNT -0.61 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.54 EP