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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 4 at the 4

Dallas Cowboys 21 – San Francisco 49ers 17

What Actually Happened

(4:15) 5-D.Bailey 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +2.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.97 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 4, worth -0.22 EP
KICK +1.97 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.71 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model