Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 8 at the 68

Detroit Lions 0 – Chicago Bears 7

(:50) (Punt formation) 6-S.Martin punts 57 yards to CHI 11, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 19-E.Royal.

The Three Options

GO -1.63 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.78 EP
59% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 68, worth -4.00 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model