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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 1 at the 70

Chicago Bears 7 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(12:01) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 51 yards to DET 19, Center-48-P.Scales. 12-A.Roberts pushed ob at DET 34 for 15 yards (31-C.Prosinski).

The Three Options

GO +0.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.69 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 70, worth -3.75 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.02 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 28, worth -1.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.14 EP