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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 8 at the 32

Chicago Bears 7 – Detroit Lions 3

What Actually Happened

(:44) (Field Goal formation) 4-C.Barth 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. DET-26-D.Carey was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO +0.75 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.17 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 32, worth -0.94 EP
KICK +1.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 42, worth -1.35 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model