4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 3 at the 73

Detroit Lions 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(11:50) (Punt formation) 6-S.Martin punts 53 yards to CHI 20, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 19-E.Royal pushed ob at CHI 40 for 20 yards (50-T.Armbrister). PENALTY on CHI-36-D.Houston-Carson, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at CHI 27.

The Three Options

GO -1.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.97 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 73, worth -4.54 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.88 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 31, worth -1.88 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP