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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 3 at the 3

Detroit Lions 3 – Chicago Bears 7

What Actually Happened

(7:21) (Field Goal formation) 5-M.Prater 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +2.92 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.81 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 3, worth +0.15 EP
KICK +1.82 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21, worth -0.83 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.10 EP