4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 6 at the 54

Detroit Lions 6 – Chicago Bears 14

What Actually Happened

(1:07) (Punt formation) 6-S.Martin punts 34 yards to CHI 20, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 19-E.Royal.

The Three Options

GO -0.45 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.76 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 54, worth -2.96 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.78 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 16, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP