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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 4 at the 63

Chicago Bears 17 – Detroit Lions 6

What Actually Happened

(2:12) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 48 yards to DET 15, Center-48-P.Scales. 12-A.Roberts for 85 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on CHI, Illegal Formation, declined.

The Three Options

GO -1.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +0.54 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 63, worth -3.02 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -1.45 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 21, worth -1.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model