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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 18 at the 92

Detroit Lions 0 – Chicago Bears 7

What Actually Happened

(6:10) (Punt formation) 6-S.Martin punts 51 yards to CHI 41, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 19-E.Royal to CHI 43 for 2 yards (26-D.Carey).

The Three Options

GO -3.68 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +0.52 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 92, worth -5.59 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (109 yards).

PUNT -3.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 50, worth -3.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model