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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 12 at the 46

Chicago Bears 7 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(3:37) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 46 yards to end zone, Center-48-P.Scales, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.59 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.81 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 46, worth -2.36 EP
KICK -0.88 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 13, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model