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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 8 at the 70

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 22

What Actually Happened

(:32) (Punt formation) 2-D.Colquitt punts 58 yards to PIT 12, Center-41-J.Winchester. 84-A.Brown to PIT 17 for 5 yards (21-E.Murray). PENALTY on PIT-25-A.Burns, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 8 yards, enforced at PIT 16.

The Three Options

GO -1.96 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.74 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 70, worth -4.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 28, worth -1.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model