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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 11 at the 44

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 22

What Actually Happened

(4:38) (Punt formation) 2-D.Colquitt punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.63 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.70 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 44, worth -2.34 EP
KICK -0.97 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.87 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model