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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q3
Kansas City Chiefs
4th & 3 at the 3
Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 36
What Actually Happened
(:28) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass incomplete short left to 88-R.Travis.
The Three Options
GO
+2.84 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
43% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.04 EP
- 57% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 3, worth +0.39 EP
KICK
+2.05 EP
- 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
- 2% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.63 EP
PUNT
+0.17 EP
- Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.17 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
