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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 4 at the 91

Pittsburgh Steelers 36 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(13:36) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 38 yards to PIT 47, Center-60-G.Warren, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.65 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 87, worth +0.01 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 91, worth -5.27 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (108 yards).

PUNT -2.68 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 48, worth -2.68 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model