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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 10 at the 70

Kansas City Chiefs 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 43

What Actually Happened

(6:03) (Punt formation) 2-D.Colquitt punts 44 yards to PIT 26, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 84-A.Brown.

The Three Options

GO -2.24 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.19 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 70, worth -3.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 28, worth -1.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model