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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 11 at the 75

Pittsburgh Steelers 43 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

What Actually Happened

(3:53) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 37 yards to KC 38, Center-60-G.Warren, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.43 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.83 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 75, worth -2.91 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -0.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 32, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model