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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 9 at the 83

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 15

What Actually Happened

(2:14) (Punt formation) 2-D.Colquitt punts 23 yards to KC 40, Center-41-J.Winchester, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.98 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +0.75 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 83, worth -5.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -2.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 41, worth -2.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model