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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 4 at the 91

Los Angeles Rams 10 – Arizona Cardinals 3

What Actually Happened

(4:23) 6-J.Hekker punts 55 yards to ARI 36, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 12-Jo.Brown to LA 45 for 19 yards (38-C.Davis).

The Three Options

GO -2.57 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 87, worth +0.26 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 91, worth -5.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (108 yards).

PUNT -2.81 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 48, worth -2.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model