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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 5 at the 39

Los Angeles Rams 10 – Arizona Cardinals 13

What Actually Happened

(12:29) (Shotgun) 17-C.Keenum pass incomplete deep left to 83-B.Quick (21-P.Peterson).

The Three Options

GO +0.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.35 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 39, worth -2.14 EP
KICK -0.19 EP
  • 57% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 48, worth -2.75 EP
PUNT -0.57 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model