Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 13 at the 49

Los Angeles Rams 10 – Arizona Cardinals 13

(8:34) 6-J.Hekker punts 44 yards to ARI 5, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 21-P.Peterson.

The Three Options

GO -1.10 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.41 EP
74% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.70 EP

KICK -1.37 EP

32% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.45 EP
68% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.73 EP

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model