Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 15 at the 70

Arizona Cardinals 13 – Los Angeles Rams 10

What Actually Happened

(5:26) 9-R.Quigley punts 51 yards to LA 19, Center-46-A.Brewer. 11-T.Austin to ARI 34 for 47 yards (80-I.Momah). PENALTY on ARI-80-I.Momah, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced at ARI 34.

The Three Options

GO -2.03 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.03 EP
72% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 70, worth -3.57 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model