Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 12 at the 57

Los Angeles Rams 17 – Arizona Cardinals 13

What Actually Happened

(1:14) 6-J.Hekker punts 41 yards to ARI 16, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 12-Jo.Brown to ARI 16 for no gain (39-M.Brown). PENALTY on LA-39-M.Brown, Horse Collar Tackle, 15 yards, enforced at ARI 16.

The Three Options

GO -1.18 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +0.70 EP
72% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 57, worth -1.91 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model