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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 19 at the 41

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(5:36) 9-R.Quigley punts 41 yards to end zone, Center-46-A.Brewer, Touchback. PENALTY on LA-32-T.Hill, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LA 20.

The Three Options

GO -0.27 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.66 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 41, worth -1.64 EP
KICK +0.14 EP
  • 52% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.48 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.43 EP
PUNT +0.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 12, worth +0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model