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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 4 at the 65

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(13:24) (Punt formation) 7-M.King punts 46 yards to BAL 19, Center-59-J.Condo, fair catch by 14-D.Hester.

The Three Options

GO -1.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.79 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 65, worth -4.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -1.44 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 23, worth -1.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model