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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 7 at the 81

Baltimore Ravens 3 – Las Vegas Raiders 14

What Actually Happened

(3:11) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 56 yards to LV 25, Center-46-M.Cox. 38-T.Carrie to LV 43 for 18 yards (50-A.McClellan).

The Three Options

GO -2.25 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +1.35 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 81, worth -4.50 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -1.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 38, worth -1.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model