Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 7 at the 54

Las Vegas Raiders 14 – Baltimore Ravens 3

(1:43) (Punt formation) 7-M.King punts 42 yards to BAL 12, Center-59-J.Condo, fair catch by 14-D.Hester.

The Three Options

GO -0.86 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.53 EP
64% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 54, worth -2.76 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model