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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 10 at the 50

Baltimore Ravens 6 – Las Vegas Raiders 14

What Actually Happened

(10:47) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 42 yards to LV 8, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 38-T.Carrie. PENALTY on BAL-11-K.Aiken, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at LV 8.

The Three Options

GO -0.94 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.41 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 50, worth -2.74 EP
KICK -1.34 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 14, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model