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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 10 at the 50

Baltimore Ravens 27 – Las Vegas Raiders 28

What Actually Happened

(:48) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass incomplete short middle to 11-K.Aiken (27-R.Nelson). No. 11 - Kamar Aiken (BAL) and No. 25 D.J. Hayden (LV) injured on play.

The Three Options

GO -0.21 EP
What Happened
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +1.91 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 50, worth -1.09 EP
KICK -0.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 29% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.60 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -1.09 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 14, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model