Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 9 at the 94

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

(1:49) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 47 yards to LV 47, Center-46-M.Cox. 30-J.Richard pushed ob at BAL 6 for 47 yards (4-S.Koch).

The Three Options

GO -3.23 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 85, worth +0.77 EP
64% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 94, worth -5.49 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (111 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model