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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 18 at the 52

New York Jets 3 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(7:49) 4-L.Edwards punts 37 yards to SEA 15, Center-46-T.Purdum, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.01 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.85 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 52, worth -2.49 EP
KICK -1.26 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.43 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 15, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model