Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 14 at the 85

New York Jets 10 – Seattle Seahawks 14

(7:52) 4-L.Edwards punts 41 yards to SEA 44, Center-46-T.Purdum. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 45 for 1 yard (20-M.Williams; 32-J.Burris).

The Three Options

GO -3.04 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.43 EP
70% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 85, worth -4.95 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model