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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 10 at the 14

Seattle Seahawks 14 – New York Jets 10

What Actually Happened

(4:16) 4-S.Hauschka 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-N.Frese, Holder-9-J.Ryan. Penalty on NYJ-96-M.Wilkerson, Defensive Offside, declined.

The Three Options

GO +1.27 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.91 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 14, worth -0.46 EP
KICK +1.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 24, worth -1.18 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model