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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 8 at the 57

New York Jets 10 – Seattle Seahawks 17

What Actually Happened

(2:37) 4-L.Edwards punts 39 yards to SEA 18, Center-46-T.Purdum, downed by NYJ-25-C.Pryor. PENALTY on SEA-23-S.Terrell, Offensive Holding, 9 yards, enforced at SEA 18.

The Three Options

GO -0.96 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.83 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 57, worth -3.01 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 17, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model