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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 3 at the 84

Seattle Seahawks 17 – New York Jets 10

What Actually Happened

(1:04) 9-J.Ryan punts 48 yards to NYJ 36, Center-48-N.Frese, fair catch by 10-J.Ross.

The Three Options

GO -2.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.17 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 84, worth -4.87 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -2.32 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 42, worth -2.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model