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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 4 at the 47

Seattle Seahawks 27 – New York Jets 17

What Actually Happened

(1:51) 9-J.Ryan punts 34 yards to NYJ 13, Center-48-N.Frese, downed by SEA-58-K.Pierre-Louis.

The Three Options

GO -0.00 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +1.21 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 47, worth -1.01 EP
KICK +0.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -1.02 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 13, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.72 EP