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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 4 at the 41

Seattle Seahawks 0 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(3:11) 9-J.Ryan punts 31 yards to NYJ 10, Center-48-N.Frese, fair catch by 10-J.Ross.

The Three Options

GO +0.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.21 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 41, worth -2.54 EP
KICK -0.73 EP
  • 52% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.45 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -3.12 EP
PUNT -0.78 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 12, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.81 EP