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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 9 at the 39

Arizona Cardinals 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(13:23) 9-R.Quigley punts 19 yards to SF 20, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 17-J.Kerley.

The Three Options

GO -0.67 EP
Model's Pick
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.82 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 39, worth -2.65 EP
KICK -1.17 EP
  • 45% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.40 EP
  • 55% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 48, worth -3.27 EP
PUNT -0.77 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model