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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 7 at the 72

San Francisco 49ers 14 – Arizona Cardinals 24

What Actually Happened

(12:04) 5-B.Pinion punts 48 yards to ARI 24, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 12-Jo.Brown.

The Three Options

GO -1.96 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.68 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 72, worth -4.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 30, worth -1.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model