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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 11 at the 50

Arizona Cardinals 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(10:20) 9-R.Quigley punts 39 yards to SF 11, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 17-J.Kerley.

The Three Options

GO -1.26 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.21 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 50, worth -3.09 EP
KICK -2.19 EP
  • 19% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 81% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.09 EP
PUNT -0.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model