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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 12 at the 45

Arizona Cardinals 31 – San Francisco 49ers 21

What Actually Happened

(1:36) 9-R.Quigley punts 44 yards to SF 1, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by ARI-28-J.Bethel.

The Three Options

GO -0.61 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +2.54 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 45, worth -1.80 EP
KICK -0.84 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.03 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model